Colombia macroeconomic monitordata as of 9 Oct 2026
Inflation and prices
How fast prices rise against the central bank's target, what inflation the market expects and where it comes from: divisions, goods and services, 188 subclasses, income levels and 23 cities.
Inflation in eight measures
- Annual inflation is 6.29% in Sep 2026, above the target range (2%–4%).
- Pressure is in services (7.7%), which depend on wages and rents, more than in goods (5.5% for non-durables and -1.3% for durables). 57% of the 188 subclasses rise more than 4% a year: inflation is not a problem of a few prices.
What is happening to prices?
- Prices rose 6.24% over the past year (data for Aug 2026); a year ago inflation was 5.1%.
- Banco de la República's target is 3%, with a 2%–4% range.
- Excluding food and regulated prices, the most volatile items, inflation is 6.1%: the pressure is broad-based.
- Investors expect inflation of 7.2% over the next year.
?The green band is the target range (2%–4%). The orange line removes food and regulated prices to show the underlying trend.
?Annual inflation for each price group. The vertical tick is the figure a year ago; the green band is the 2%–4% target range. Orange: above the range.
?Food and regulated prices move with shocks (weather, energy, tariffs); underlying inflation shows the persistent pressure the central bank tries to control.
?Computed from government bonds (TES): the gap between fixed-rate bonds and inflation-linked bonds. If the purple line is above the band, the market expects inflation to stay high.
?Left of the dotted line, inflation that already happened (grey). Right of it, what government bonds price today: 7.2% on average next year, 5.7% a year between years 1 and 5, and 6.1% a year between years 5 and 10 (the latter is the "5y5y"). The dotted grey line is the same reading a year ago: if the purple one sits above it, the market now expects more inflation. If the steps fall toward the green band, the market believes inflation will return to target.
Learn more
Beyond today's inflation, what people and markets believe will happen matters: if they expect high inflation, they raise prices and wages in advance and inflation becomes persistent. The chart below shows what the market expects 5 to 10 years ahead: near 3% means it trusts the central bank to meet its target.
?This is not a forecast of this line: each point is what the market expected, on that day, for average inflation 5 to 10 years ahead (today's value refers to 5 to 10 years from now; the full projection is in the chart "The inflation the market expects over the next 10 years"). If it stays near target, the market trusts that inflation will return to 3%; above 4%, expectations are considered de-anchored.
What explains inflation?
- Of the 6.29 points of annual inflation, Housing and utilities contributes 1.78, Food 1.28 and Restaurants and hotels 1.06.
- Restaurants and hotels is the division rising fastest (9.4%); Clothing and footwear, the slowest (3.1%).
?Percentage points each division adds to annual inflation; they add up to total inflation. In brackets, its weight in the basket.
?Annual price change for each spending division. The green band is the Banco de la República target range (2%–4%).
Are goods or services rising faster?
- Services are up 7.7% over a year and non-durable goods 5.5%; durables change -1.3%.
- Excluding food and energy, inflation is 6.5%: a measure of underlying pressure that depends less on weather and international prices.
?Annual CPI change by type of good according to durability. Services tend to move with wages and rents; durables, with the dollar.
?Annual change. Energy (gas, electricity and fuel) is volatile; inflation excluding food and energy shows persistent pressure.
How widespread is inflation?
- 57% of subclasses rise more than 4% a year (75% of household spending) and 38% more than 6%.
- The largest contributors to inflation are comidas en establecimientos de servicio a la… (+0.71 pp), arriendo imputado (+0.64 pp), transporte urbano (+0.51 pp).
- The biggest drags: vehículo particular nuevo o usado (-0.07 pp), zanahoria (-0.04 pp).
?Each bar counts how many basket subclasses have annual inflation in that range. The green band is the target range; to the right of 4% are those above it.
?Contribution to annual inflation, in percentage points: the 8 adding most and the 4 subtracting most. Hover to see their annual inflation.
Who feels inflation most?
- Inflation for poor households is 6.14% and for high-income households 6.32%.
- The difference is 0.18 pp: today inflation hits high-income households somewhat harder, whose basket includes more services.
?DANE computes the CPI with each household group's basket (poor, vulnerable, middle class and high income). The dotted line is the total.
Inflation in 23 cities
- Annual inflation ranges from 4.53% in Riohacha to 7.04% in Medellín. 8 of 23 cities are above the national total (6.29%).
- In Medellín the fastest-rising division is Restaurants and hotels (9.7%).
?Annual change in total CPI in each of the 23 cities. The dotted line is the national total.
?Annual inflation by city and spending division. Darker = rising faster. Cities are ordered by total inflation.
Methodological basis and literature
- Bryan, M. F. y Cecchetti, S. G. (1994). Measuring Core Inflation. En N. G. Mankiw (ed.), Monetary Policy, 195–215. University of Chicago Press (NBER).Core inflation measures that exclude the most volatile prices.
- Baumol, W. J. (1967). Macroeconomics of Unbalanced Growth: The Anatomy of Urban Crisis. American Economic Review, 57(3), 415–426.Why services tend to become more expensive than goods.
- Cecchetti, S. G. (1997). Measuring Short-Run Inflation for Central Bankers. Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 79(3), 143–155.Dispersion and diffusion of price changes.
- Jaravel, X. (2021). Inflation Inequality: Measurement, Causes, and Policy Implications. Annual Review of Economics, 13, 599–629.Different inflation by household income level.
- DANE. Índice de Precios al Consumidor, base diciembre 2018: metodología y canasta (2019).COICOP divisions, weights, subclasses, cities and income levels.
Frequently asked questions
What is Colombia's inflation rate today?
Annual inflation is 6.29% in Sep 2026, above the target range (2%–4%). Pressure is in services (7.7%), which depend on wages and rents, more than in goods (5.5% for non-durables and -1.3% for durables). 57% of the 188 subclasses rise more than 4% a year: inflation is not a problem of a few prices.
What is Banco de la República's inflation target?
3% a year, with a range of plus or minus one percentage point (2% to 4%).
What is core inflation?
Inflation excluding the most volatile prices, such as food and regulated prices. It shows underlying price pressure.
When does DANE publish inflation?
DANE publishes the monthly CPI in the first business days of the following month.