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Colombia macroeconomic monitordata as of 9 Oct 2026

TES yield curve

What the market charges to lend to the government at 1, 5 and 10 years, any day since 2003.

01

The TES curve in eight measures

Key points
  • The 10-year TES yields 13.30% and the 1-year 12.44%; the slope is +0.86 pp, flatter than on 86% of days since 2003.
  • The 10-year real rate (UVR) is 6.84% and implied inflation compensation 6.05%.
  • Over 12 months: rates rose, more at the short end.
10-year TES · 2 Oct 202613.30%a year ago 11.85%1-year TES12.44%policy rate 12.25%Slope 10 − 1 years+0.86 ppflatter than 86% of days since 200310-year real rate (UVR)6.84%a year ago 5.91%10-year inflation compensation6.05%Bank target 3% · includes premia10-year TES − policy rate+1.05 ppaverage since 2003 +3.13 pp10-year TES volatility162 bpannualised, 60 days · average 203 bp12-month moveBear flatteninglevel +223 bp · slope -170 bp
02

What does the market charge to lend to the government?

Key points
  • On 2 Oct 2026, a 1-year government bond yields 12.44% and a 10-year bond 13.30%.
  • The gap is +0.86 points: the curve is upward-sloping (normal).
  • Over the past year the 10-year yield moved +1.45 points.
  • Move the date bar to see the curve on any day since 2003 and tick years to compare them.
Compare with year-end:
TES zero-coupon yield curve (BanRep)

?Each line is one date: the thick blue line is the selected date and the others are the ticked years. A curve rising from left to right is normal; if it falls, the market expects lower rates ahead.

Source: Banco de la República, TES zero-coupon curves (series 15272–15277)?Methodology. Zero-coupon yields at 1, 5 and 10 years on the chosen day; thin lines: year-end of each ticked year.
History of 1-, 5- and 10-year yields

?Hover over the history to see that day's curve; click to pin it. The vertical line marks the selected date.

Source: Banco de la República, TES zero-coupon curves (series 15272–15277)?Methodology. Daily series of 1-, 5- and 10-year zero-coupon yields.
Learn more

The curve shows what the market asks to lend to the government at different maturities. When the whole curve rises, credit gets more expensive for everyone (firms, households, the government itself). Compare years: in 2021 rates were low and the curve steep (hikes expected); in 2022–2023 it rose sharply as the central bank fought inflation.

03

Level, slope and curvature

Key points
  • The curve level (average of 1, 5 and 10 years) is 12.94%, against a historical average of 8.35%.
  • The slope is +0.86 pp and the curvature +0.42 pp.
  • Since 2003 the curve was inverted (10 years below 1 year) in 3 episodes; the most recent ran from 12 Jun 2026 to 14 Aug 2026 (low -0.37 pp).
Level, slope and curvature of the peso curve

?Level = average of 1, 5 and 10 years. Slope = 10 years − 1 year. Curvature = 2 × 5 years − 1 year − 10 years (positive: the belly is high).

Source: Banco de la República, TES zero-coupon curve (SEN and MEC, Nelson-Siegel)?Methodology. Factors computed from the 1-, 5- and 10-year peso zero-coupon rates: level = average; slope = 10y − 1y; curvature = 2×5y − 1y − 10y. Weekly series (last value each Friday).
Slope and inverted-curve episodes

?Slope 10 − 1 years. Shaded areas mark periods when the 10-year TES yielded less than the 1-year.

Source: Banco de la República, TES zero-coupon curve (SEN and MEC, Nelson-Siegel)?Methodology. Episodes: runs of at least 5 consecutive business days with a negative 10y − 1y slope (daily data).
Inverted-curve episodes
FromToBusiness daysLowest slopePolicy rate at start
12 Jun 202614 Aug 202641-0.37 pp11.25%
14 Apr 202630 Apr 202613-0.22 pp11.25%
26 Jun 202314 Jul 202314-0.40 pp13.25%

To understand · Banco de la República

What is the TES zero-coupon curve?

TES (Treasury Securities) are the bonds the national Government uses to borrow in the local market. The curve shows the interest rate the market demands from the Government at each maturity: 1, 2, 5, 10 years… It is the benchmark against which other peso assets are valued.

1. Why 'zero coupon'?

Most TES pay interest every year (coupons), so their yield blends several maturities. A zero-coupon rate is that of a single payment at maturity: it strips out the coupon effect and allows a clean comparison of maturities.

2. How the Banco de la República computes it

The Bank estimates the curve daily with the Nelson and Siegel (1987) model, using trades negotiated and registered on SEN (the Bank's Electronic Trading System) and MEC (Mercado Electrónico de Colombia, the Colombian Securities Exchange electronic market). It publishes the 1-, 5- and 10-year rates, which are the ones this dashboard uses.

3. Pesos and UVR

There are two curves. Peso TES pay a nominal rate. UVR TES (Real Value Unit, adjusted for inflation) pay a real rate, above inflation. Today, at 10 years: 13.30% in pesos and 6.84% in UVR.

Comparing them gives inflation compensation (Fisher equation): (1 + nominal) / (1 + real) − 1 = 6.05% at 10 years. It is not an inflation forecast: it also includes inflation-risk and liquidity premia.

4. Curve shapes

  • Normal (upward)Longer maturities pay more: lenders ask more for lending longer.
  • FlatAlmost the same rate at every maturity.
  • InvertedShort maturities pay more than long ones. The episode table on this page shows when it happened in Colombia.

5. Level, slope and curvature

Almost all of a curve's movement is summarised by three factors (Litterman and Scheinkman, 1991): the level (all rates moving together), the slope (distance between long and short end) and the curvature (whether the middle bends). In this dashboard: level = average of 1, 5 and 10 years; slope = 10 − 1 years; curvature = 2 × 5 years − 1 − 10 years.

Official sources

  • Banco de la República — TES zero-coupon rates (series description)
  • Arango, L. E., Melo, L. F. y Vásquez, D. M. (2002). Estimación de la estructura a plazo de las tasas de interés en Colombia. Borradores de Economía 196, Banco de la República.
  • Nelson, C. R. y Siegel, A. F. (1987). Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves. Journal of Business, 60(4).
  • Fisher, I. (1930). The Theory of Interest.
04

How has the curve moved?

Key points
  • Over 12 months the 1-year TES changed +315 bp, the 5-year +209 bp and the 10-year +145 bp: rates rose, more at the short end.
  • Of the 10-year change, +93 bp came from the real rate and +52 bp from inflation compensation.
Change at each maturity (basis points)

?Change in the zero-coupon rate over 1, 3 and 12 months. 100 bp = 1 percentage point.

Source: Banco de la República, TES zero-coupon curve (SEN and MEC, Nelson-Siegel)?Methodology. Difference between the latest zero-coupon rate and the one on the last available business day 1, 3 and 12 months earlier, in basis points.
Real rate or inflation? 12-month change

?12-month change at each maturity split into real rate (UVR TES) and the nominal − real gap.

Source: Banco de la República, TES zero-coupon curve (SEN and MEC, Nelson-Siegel)?Methodology. 12-month change in the peso rate = change in the UVR (real) rate + change in the nominal − real gap.
05

Nominal rate, real rate and inflation compensation

Key points
  • A peso TES pays a real rate plus inflation compensation.
  • Today, at 10 years: 13.30% nominal = 6.84% real (UVR) and 6.05% compensation.
  • Compensation exceeds the Bank's target (3%) by 3.0 pp: it includes the inflation the market prices in plus risk and liquidity premia.
Nominal = real + inflation compensation (today)

?Stacked bars: real rate of the UVR TES and the gap to the peso TES rate. Hover for the exact compensation (Fisher).

Source: Banco de la República, TES zero-coupon curve (SEN and MEC, Nelson-Siegel)?Methodology. UVR rate plus the gap to the peso rate. Exact inflation compensation is (1 + nominal)/(1 + real) − 1 (Fisher) and includes risk and liquidity premia.
10-year real rate and inflation compensation

?Rate of the 10-year UVR TES and implied inflation compensation (Fisher). The green band is the Bank's target range.

Source: Banco de la República, TES zero-coupon curve (SEN and MEC, Nelson-Siegel)?Methodology. 10-year UVR zero-coupon rate and 10-year implied inflation compensation (Fisher). Weekly series.
06

Premium over the policy rate and volatility

Key points
  • The 10-year TES is 1.05 pp over the policy rate (3.13 pp on average since 2003).
  • Its annualised volatility over the last 60 days is 162 bp, below its historical average (203 bp).
TES versus the policy rate

?Gap between the 1- and 10-year TES and the monetary policy rate, in percentage points.

Source: Banco de la República (TES zero-coupon curve and monetary policy rate)?Methodology. Peso zero-coupon rate minus the monetary policy rate in force that day, in percentage points. Weekly series.
10-year TES volatility

?Standard deviation of daily changes over the last 60 business days, annualised (× √252), in basis points.

Source: Banco de la República, TES zero-coupon curve (SEN and MEC, Nelson-Siegel)?Methodology. 60-business-day rolling standard deviation of daily changes in the 10-year rate, × √252, in basis points. The dotted line is the average since 2003.
07

Methodological basis and literature

  1. Fisher, I. (1930). The Theory of Interest. Macmillan.Nominal rate = real rate + inflation compensation.
  2. Nelson, C. R. y Siegel, A. F. (1987). Parsimonious Modeling of Yield Curves. Journal of Business, 60(4), 473–489.Model the Banco de la República uses to estimate the TES zero-coupon curve.
  3. Litterman, R. y Scheinkman, J. (1991). Common Factors Affecting Bond Returns. Journal of Fixed Income, 1(1), 54–61.Level, slope and curvature explain almost all curve movements.
  4. Estrella, A. y Hardouvelis, G. A. (1991). The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity. Journal of Finance, 46(2), 555–576.The information content of the curve's slope.
  5. Gürkaynak, R. S., Sack, B. y Wright, J. H. (2010). The TIPS Yield Curve and Inflation Compensation. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2(1), 70–92.Why inflation compensation includes premia besides expected inflation.
  6. Arango, L. E., Melo, L. F. y Vásquez, D. M. (2002). Estimación de la estructura a plazo de las tasas de interés en Colombia. Borradores de Economía 196, Banco de la República.Estimation of the Colombian zero-coupon curve.
  7. Espinosa, J. A., Melo, L. F. y Moreno, J. F. (2014). Estimación de la prima por vencimiento de los TES en pesos del gobierno colombiano. Borradores de Economía 854, Banco de la República.The TES term premium rises and becomes more volatile with maturity.
08

Frequently asked questions

What do Colombia's TES bonds yield today?

The 10-year TES yields 13.30% and the 1-year 12.44%; the slope is +0.86 pp, flatter than on 86% of days since 2003. The 10-year real rate (UVR) is 6.84% and implied inflation compensation 6.05%.

What are TES bonds?

Colombian government domestic debt securities. There are peso TES (nominal yield) and UVR TES (real yield, indexed to inflation).

What is breakeven inflation?

The inflation rate that equates the yield of a peso TES and a UVR TES of the same maturity. It reflects what the market prices in and includes risk premia.

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