Universidad de San Buenaventura Cali FinancialTools.io Colombia MacroUSB Cali · official data Español

Colombia macroeconomic monitordata as of 9 Oct 2026

Interest rates

The central bank's policy rate and the real rate: the true cost of borrowing.

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01

Interest rates in eight measures

Key points
  • The Banco de la República policy rate is 12.25% since 1 Oct 2026, after 4 decisions of hikes since Feb 2026 (+3.00 pp).
  • Market rates follow it: the overnight IBR is 12.26%, the 90-day CD 10.31% and the average new loan 16.71%.
  • Net of inflation, total credit is growing +3.3% a year.
Policy rate · since 1 Oct 202612.25%last decision +0.25 pp · a year ago 9.25%Current cycle+3.00 pp4 decisions since Feb 2026 (9.25% → 12.25%)Ex-ante real rate4.7%estimated neutral 2.7%–3.0%Overnight IBR − policy rate+1 bpIBR 12.26% · the Bank steers the overnight rate3-month IBR12.41%+16 bp versus the policy rate90-day CD rate10.31%what banks pay on savings · 12 months +1.72 ppNew lending (average)16.71%+3.01 pp over 12 months · spread over CD 6.3 ppTotal credit, real growth+3.3%annual, net of inflation · Aug 2026
02

What is Banco de la República doing?

Key points
  • The central bank's policy rate is 12.25%.
  • Subtracting the inflation the market expects for next year gives the ex-ante real rate —the true cost of borrowing—: 4.7%, a level that is high enough to slow the economy and bring inflation down.
Policy rate vs inflation
Policy rate12.25%9 Oct 2026▲ +3.0 pp vs. 1 year ago
Headline inflation6.24%Aug 2026▲ +1.1 pp vs. 1 year ago

?When the policy rate (blue) is well above inflation (orange), credit is expensive and the economy cools; that is how inflation is brought down.

Source: Banco de la República, policy rate; DANE, CPI?Methodology. Policy rate set by the Board (steps at each decision) versus annual inflation.
Learn more

What is the ex-ante real rate? It is the central bank's rate minus the inflation expected for next year. Today: a 12.25% policy rate and 7.2% expected inflation give a 4.7% real rate. "Ex ante" means "before the fact": it uses expected inflation, not past inflation, because whoever borrows today decides with future inflation in mind.

It is compared with the neutral rate (2.7%–3.0%, the Bank's estimate): the one that neither speeds up nor slows the economy. Above it, credit is expensive and the economy cools (tight policy); below it, the economy is stimulated (loose policy).

Real rate vs neutral rate
Ex-ante real rate4.7%2 Oct 2026▲ +0.2 pp vs. 1 year ago

?Ex-ante real rate = policy rate minus the inflation expected for next year (the true cost of borrowing). The grey band is the neutral rate (2.7%–3.0%): above it, policy slows the economy; below it, it stimulates it.

Source: Banco de la República: policy rate and TES curves; own calculation?Methodology. Ex-ante real rate = (1 + policy rate) / (1 + 1-year expected inflation) − 1 (Fisher equation). Neutral estimated by the Bank's staff: 2.7%–3.0%.
03

Policy-rate cycles

Key points
  • Since 2000 the policy rate has gone through 10 complete cycles of hikes and cuts.
  • The largest was hikes between Oct 2021 and May 2023 (+11.50 pp).
  • The current cycle, of hikes since Feb 2026, adds +3.00 pp in 4 decisions.
Policy rate and its cycles since 2000

?Monetary policy rate (last value of each week). Orange bands are hiking cycles and blue bands easing cycles (from the first to the last decision in the same direction).

Source: Banco de la República?Methodology. Daily monetary policy rate. Cycle = consecutive decisions in the same direction; it ends when the next decision goes the other way (pauses do not end a cycle).
Policy-rate cycles
FromToDirectionDecisionsFrom → toChangeMonths
Jan 2003Apr 2003Hikes25.25% → 7.25%+2.00 pp4
Feb 2004Sep 2005Cuts47.25% → 6.00%-1.25 pp20
May 2006Jul 2008Hikes166.00% → 10.00%+4.00 pp28
Dec 2008May 2010Cuts1010.00% → 3.00%-7.00 pp17
Feb 2011Feb 2012Hikes93.00% → 5.25%+2.25 pp13
Jul 2012Mar 2013Cuts75.25% → 3.25%-2.00 pp9
Apr 2014Aug 2016Hikes163.25% → 7.75%+4.50 pp28
Dec 2016Sep 2020Cuts197.75% → 1.75%-6.00 pp46
Oct 2021May 2023Hikes141.75% → 13.25%+11.50 pp20
Dec 2023May 2025Cuts1013.25% → 9.25%-4.00 pp17
Feb 2026Oct 2026 (ongoing)Hikes49.25% → 12.25%+3.00 pp9

To understand · Banco de la República

How does the policy rate work and reach the economy?

The Banco de la República uses the monetary policy rate to bring inflation to its 3% target. The rate does not act immediately: it passes through a chain of markets, each with its own pace.

1. The transmission chain (with today's data)

  1. 1BoardSets the policy rate: today 12.25%.
  2. 2Overnight marketWith expansion repos and contraction deposits, the Bank brings the overnight IBR to that level: today 12.26%.
  3. 3Longer tenorsThe 1-, 3-, 6- and 12-month IBR change (3 months: 12.41%) as do TES yields.
  4. 4Savings and loansBanks adjust what they pay on CDs (10.31% at 90 days) and charge on loans (16.71% on average).
  5. 5Spending, the dollar and expectationsCostlier credit means less spending and investment; the exchange rate, asset prices and inflation expectations also move.
  6. 6InflationWith a lag, weaker demand brings inflation towards the 3% target.

2. What each rate measures

  • Monetary policy rate. It is the minimum interest rate the Banco de la República charges financial institutions on loans made through open market operations (OMOs) in one-business-day monetary expansion auctions. The Board sets it and it applies from the business day after the meeting.
  • IBR. Reference Banking Indicator: short-term peso rate reflecting the price at which banks are willing to lend or borrow in the money market. Overnight since 2008; 1 and 3 months since 2012, 6 months since 2016 and 12 months since 2022.
  • TIB. Overnight interbank rate: amount-weighted average of unsecured loans between financial institutions; it reflects liquidity and credit risk among them.
  • DTF and CDs. Deposit rates: what banks pay on term certificates of deposit. The DTF is the weekly weighted average of 90-day CDs of banks, financial corporations and finance companies.
  • Lending rates. Rates on new loans by type (consumer, ordinary commercial, preferential and treasury, housing), computed by the Bank from Form 088 reported by institutions to the Financial Superintendence.

3. Real and neutral rate

The ex-ante real rate is the policy rate minus the inflation the market expects for the next year. If it is above the neutral real rate (neither slowing nor stimulating the economy), policy is restrictive; below it, expansionary. The neutral rate is not observed: it is estimated, so it is shown as a range.

Official sources

04

Does the policy rate reach loans and savings?

Key points
  • In the previous cycle (from Dec 2023) the policy rate changed -4.00 pp; three months after the last decision the 3-month IBR had changed -3.61 pp, the 90-day CD -3.81 pp and new lending -4.46 pp.
  • In the current cycle (+3.00 pp since Feb 2026) so far: 3-month IBR +2.33 pp, CD +1.06 pp and new lending +2.27 pp.
  • So far pass-through is larger in the interbank market and lending than in savings.
Policy, interbank, savings and lending rates

?Monthly averages. All rates move with the policy rate; lending sits above it (bank risk and costs) and savings usually below.

Source: Banco de la República with Financial Superintendence data (Form 088)?Methodology. Monthly averages of daily (policy rate, IBR, CD) and weekly (lending) data. Effective annual rates.
How much of each cycle reached each rate?

?Change in each rate divided by the change in the policy rate, from the day before the first decision to three months after the last. 100% = full pass-through; above 100% = the rate moved more than the policy rate. * = ongoing cycle.

Source: Banco de la República with Financial Superintendence data (Form 088)?Methodology. Pass-through = (rate at t1 − rate at t0) / (policy rate at t1 − policy rate at t0) × 100, with t0 = day before the cycle's first decision and t1 = three months after the last (or latest data). Cycles since 2008; '—' = series did not yet exist.
05

How much does credit cost?

Key points
  • Consumer credit costs 21.40%, ordinary commercial 15.58%, corporate (preferential) 14.68% and housing 15.38%.
  • Net of inflation of 6.24%, the real rate on average new lending is 9.86%.
  • Compared with a year ago, new lending changed +3.01 pp.
New-lending rate by type

?Effective annual rate of the latest weekly data. Light bar: real rate (minus annual inflation). The dotted line is the policy rate.

Source: Banco de la República with Financial Superintendence data (Form 088)?Methodology. Latest weekly data for each type. Real rate = (1 + nominal)/(1 + annual CPI inflation) − 1.
Intermediation spread and consumer premium

?Total new lending minus 90-day CD (what banks charge over what they pay) and consumer minus policy rate, in percentage points; monthly averages.

Source: Banco de la República with Financial Superintendence data (Form 088)?Methodology. Differences of monthly averages: total lending − 90-day CD; consumer − policy rate.
06

The short-term money market

Key points
  • The IBR is the rate at which banks lend pesos to each other.
  • Today: overnight 12.26%, 1 month 12.29%, 3 months 12.41%, 6 months 12.53% and 12 months 12.70%.
  • Over the last year the overnight IBR deviated on average 1 bp from the policy rate: this shows the Board's decision holds in the market.
The IBR curve: today, 3 months and a year ago

?Effective annual IBR by tenor. Horizontal dashes are the policy rate on each date. If longer tenors are below overnight, the market charges less for lending longer.

Source: Banco de la República?Methodology. Effective annual IBR by tenor on the latest date, 3 months and a year earlier (last data on or before each date).
Overnight rates versus the policy rate

?Overnight IBR and interbank rate (TIB, unsecured loans) minus the policy rate, in basis points. Near zero = the Bank firmly steers the overnight cost of money.

Source: Banco de la República with Financial Superintendence data?Methodology. Weekly average of (overnight IBR − policy rate) and (TIB − policy rate), in basis points.
07

How much credit is there and how fast is it growing?

Key points
  • Outstanding peso credit totals COP 762 trillion.
  • In real terms it grows +3.3% a year: consumer +3.8%, commercial +2.2%, housing +4.1% and microcredit +10.9%.
  • Commercial credit is 50% of the total; consumer, 30%.
Real credit growth by type

?Annual change in the outstanding peso loan book, net of annual CPI inflation. Since 2015 bank accounting uses IFRS (methodological change).

Source: Banco de la República (peso loan book); DANE (CPI)?Methodology. Real growth = (1 + annual change in the balance)/(1 + annual inflation) − 1. Gross loan book without securitisation adjustment; housing: adjusted mortgage book. IFRS since 2015.
What is lent for? Credit composition

?Share of each type in the outstanding peso loan book.

Source: Banco de la República?Methodology. Share of each type in the sum of commercial, consumer, housing (adjusted) and microcredit in local currency.
08

Liquidity provided by the Bank

Key points
  • Last month the Bank had on average COP 17.3 trillion lent to banks through expansion repos and received COP 7.8 trillion in contraction deposits.
  • This is how it adjusts the amount of pesos so the overnight rate stays close to the policy rate.
Expansion repos and contraction deposits

?Daily balances averaged by month, in COP trillion. Above: money the Bank lends to banks (overnight and longer). Below: money banks deposit at the Bank.

Source: Banco de la República?Methodology. Daily balances of overnight and term expansion auctions and of the contraction window, averaged by month (COP trillion).
09

Methodological basis and literature

  1. Taylor, J. B. (1993). Discretion versus Policy Rules in Practice. Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 39, 195–214.The rule linking the central bank rate to inflation and the output gap.
  2. Clarida, R., Galí, J. y Gertler, M. (1999). The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective. Journal of Economic Literature, 37(4), 1661–1707.Modern framework for inflation-targeting monetary policy.
  3. Bernanke, B. S. y Gertler, M. (1995). Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 9(4), 27–48.The credit channel: how monetary policy affects loan supply.
  4. Laubach, T. y Williams, J. C. (2003). Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest. Review of Economics and Statistics, 85(4), 1063–1070.What the neutral real rate is and how it is estimated.
  5. Betancourt, R., Vargas, H. y Rodríguez, N. (2008). Interest Rate Pass-Through in Colombia: A Micro-Banking Perspective. Cuadernos de Economía, 45(131), 29–58.Pass-through of the policy rate to bank rates in Colombia.
  6. Chavarro, X., Cristiano, D., Gómez, J. E., González, E. y Huertas, C. (2015). Evaluación de la transmisión de la tasa de interés de referencia a las tasas de interés del sistema financiero. Borradores de Economía 874, Banco de la República.Transmission is heterogeneous across loan types and symmetric between hikes and cuts.
  7. Banco de la República. Definiciones de la tasa de política monetaria, IBR, TIB, DTF, CDT y tasas de colocación (catálogo de series estadísticas).How each rate on this page is computed.
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Frequently asked questions

What is Banco de la República's interest rate today?

The Banco de la República policy rate is 12.25% since 1 Oct 2026, after 4 decisions of hikes since Feb 2026 (+3.00 pp). Market rates follow it: the overnight IBR is 12.26%, the 90-day CD 10.31% and the average new loan 16.71%.

What is the monetary policy rate?

The rate at which Banco de la República lends liquidity to banks. Its Board sets it to bring inflation to the 3% target.

What is the real interest rate?

The nominal rate minus expected inflation. Above the neutral rate, monetary policy is restrictive.

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